2024 EU Elections: Understanding The Outcomes and What Happens Next

In case you missed it, the results of the 2024 EU Elections are in, with the European People’s Party (EPP, centre-right) emerging as the clear winner.

And although the right wing parties did fail to achieve a majority, the new composition of the EU Parliament and leadership raises important questions about the future of the European Green Deal (EGD).

So let’s have a look at the prospects for the Commission’s presidency, the block’s climate agenda, and understand the key events that follow the counting of the ballots in an EU election.

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The Future of The EU Commission

The EU Council is ready to propose Ursula von der Leyen (EPP) as President of the EU Commission for the second time running, but to secure her spot, she must go through a two-step process.

First, she must be appointed by the Council with a qualified majority. That means being supported by 55% of member states, which equals 15 nations, provided that those countries represent more than 65% of the EU population.

That is known as the ‘double majority rule‘, however, the population majority is not required if a total of 24 countries support the proposal.

The second, and most challenging step to securing the presidency, is obtaining the EU Parliament’s approval.

The Most Likely Scenarios

The vote to name the new EU Commission President will likely be held on July 18, during the plenary session in Strasbourg, when von der Leyen will need at least 361 (from a total of 720) seats to win.

According to the election’s results, the EPP (von der Leyen’s centre-right party) gets 189 seats (14 more than the last term), and then we will have to see where the rest of the votes could come from.

Here are the two most likely scenarios for how the required number of votes will be reached:

1. EPP + S&D + Renew: This is the Commission current coalition (2019 – 2024), which includes the Social Democratic Party (S&D), with 136 seats, and the liberals from Renew, with 81 seats. Even though this amounts to 400 seats, the fact that the vote is secret could mean a smaller number of supporting votes in the end.
2. EPP + S&D + Renew + Greens: The Green Party could add 52 seats to support the candidate, but that would depend on the negotiations between the Greens and EPP regarding the EU’s sustainability plans and ambitions.

Could There Be Another Option?

In theory, yes, but in reality, that is highly unlikely. Let’s understand why.

Both the S&D and Renew have made clear that they will not share a coalition with the far-right parties, namely the European Conservatives and Reformist Party (ECR), led by Giorgia Meloni, and Identity and Democracy Party (ID), led by Marine Le Pen.

Nicolas Schmit, who ran as S&D’s lead candidate, has urged democratic forces to “come together and not look at the extremes”, while also calling for a strengthened focus on climate matters: “We have to go on with an active climate policy”.

At the same time, the leader from the German Social Democratic Party, Katarina Barley, stated: “We are available for talks … but as I said, we require assurances that there are no right-wing extremists on board”.

In light of those declarations, despite von der Leyen and Meloni having a good relationship, a parliamentary alliance between the EPP, ECR and ID (totalling only 330 votes) is virtually discarded.

Understanding The Influence Level of Right-wing Parties

Even if you are not familiar with how the EU works, by now you can already tell that the future of the block depends heavily on how the Commission and the Parliament are shaped.

Analysing the election results reveals that only the EPP, ECR, and ID parties have seen an increase in their numbers. However, a majority is still out of reach, meaning they may influence but not control power, even if far-right parties (ECR and ID) were to form one large conservative party.

Far-right parties also pose a greater challenge at the national level rather than the EU level. While developments in countries like France, Germany, Hungary, and Italy warrant attention, the difference between the composition of the 2019-2024 Parliament and the new one is not that great.

In practice, the Parliament lacks the authority to introduce new legislative proposals directly, and the Council is dominated by a small minority of far-right leaders compared to a large majority of centre-right (EPP), socialists (S&D), and liberals, limiting the far-right’s power.

On the other hand, the composition of Parliament’s committee groups is indeed crucial, as this is where decisions are made before reaching Strasbourg, and where the Greens will have more opportunities to contribute to the discussions.

We expect this new Parliament to prioritise competitiveness, strategic autonomy, and industrial strategy, especially regarding an energy transition. There will likely be efforts to reduce administrative burdens on companies, alongside a less ambitious Green Deal (EGD) and climate targets.

Unfortunately, despite saying that it will uphold the EGD and the established climate targets, the EPP is already aiming to scrap the ban on the new internal combustion cars. Biodiversity is also expected to take a hit, as demonstrated by the party’s push against the EU Nature Restoration Law.

However, the fact that Ursula von der Leyen might need the support of the Greens to secure a second term, could help keep the Green Deal in its integrity.

An Overview of The Independent or Non-aligned Seats

As it stands, there are nearly 89 new parliamentarians who are yet to affiliate themselves with a political party. Half of them will most likely join one of the existing groups, while the rest should remain non-aligned. The majority of these independents belong to small conservative, far-right, and populist parties that, for various political reasons, could not integrate into established groups. The most notable among them would be the following:

• Alternative for Germany (AfD) – A German far-right party which has been expelled from the ID group and holds 15 seats.
• Fidesz – Led by Viktor Orbán, this Hungarian right-wing populist and national-conservative party has 11 seats, and displays an intention of joining ID.
• Five Star Movement – An Italian left-green party with 8 seats.
• Respect and Freedom – A new Hungarian centre-right party holding 7 seats.
• Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – A left-wing conservative party in Germany with 6 seats.

A Timeline of The Main Upcoming Events

The elections may have been the highlight of the year in the EU, but they are certainly not the only significant political event in 2024. In fact, anyone trying to understand how the EU elections work would quickly realise that they are mainly a trigger for a series of other key political milestones.

In the coming days, on June 27-28, the Council will hold a formal meeting to propose the President of the Commission and designate top positions within the Commission (one per member state). Possible candidates include Antonio Costa for President of the Council (S&D – Portugal) and Kaja Kallas for Foreign Affairs (Renew – Estonia).

Q3 2024

From July 16 to 19, the first plenary session in Strasbourg will take place, where the Parliament and the committees will be constituted, and the Council’s candidate for Commission President will be voted on.

If the Parliament rejects the candidate, the Council has an additional month to propose a new one, with a vote scheduled for the September session in Strasbourg.

Q4 2024

In October and November, assuming the President is approved by the Parliament, there will be hearings for the Commissioners-designate.

On December 1, the new EU Council President will take office. Finally, between December 16-19, the presentation of the College will occur, along with the parliament vote on the investiture of the Commission and the election of the European Ombudsman.

As usual, you can stay tuned to the Ohana blog for all the next updates on these topics, including the composition of the committees, the relevant MEPs per file, and any further negotiations within the EU Parliament.

The EU’s ever-changing political landscape has a significant impact on European businesses, and keeping up with the latest developments is a necessity for organisations from all sectors. In fact, as we have often said, the most forward-thinking businesses have the potential to shape the future of EU legislation by directly engaging with policymakers. More than keeping you informed about the latest political events and trends, our experts are here to help your organisation join the conversation in Brussels and lead sustainable change!

Want someone with deep experience and connections in the EU to help guide your sustainability strategy? Get in touch!

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